In April, 2020 I wrote an article describing four possible scenarios for how the coronavirus pandemic could play out: “Much Ado About Nothing”, “The Camel’s Straw”, “Spain Again” and “Walking the Tightrope”. At the time the cumulative number of global cases was 2 400 000 and deaths 165 000. Seven months later, the figures are 60 000 000 and 1 403 000, representing an increase of 25 times in cases and 8.5 times in deaths. While there has been a marked increase in testing everywhere, the treatment of sick patients around the world has clearly improved during the period. Collectively, these two factors have brought down the ratio of deaths to cases from just below seven per cent in April to just over two per cent at present.

 

So where are we now in terms of the scenarios?

 

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